Generic ballot average sits at D+6.7 with our Senate estimate near even

Seventy-seven days before the November 3 election, our average of 26 generic ballot polls taken over the past 45 days stands at D+6.7. As of 6:30 AM ET, our model gives Democrats a 47 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 53 percent, with a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. That threshold is why a near-even seat mean produces an under-even probability.

In the House, our model puts the Democratic chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for a majority at 93 in 100, against 7 percent for Republicans, with a mean of 242.4 Democratic seats. One caveat is ours to declare: our simulation draws correlated error at the national, census-division, state and district levels, but it has no term linking demographically similar districts in different places. We lack the cluster data to build one, so our House control number is somewhat firmer than a fuller error model would leave it. We have not measured the size of that gap and are not adjusting for it.

The largest overnight change on the board is Louisiana, where our model moved 8.3 points against the Democrat, from a 10 percent chance to 2 percent. Maine drifted 3.4 points the other way, to 78 percent. Ohio's Senate race eased 1.5 points to a 65 percent Democratic chance, and OH-9 rose 1.6 points to 84 percent. Alaska's Senate shift, noted here yesterday, now leaves the Democratic chance at 33 percent.

Ohio produced two Senate polls with Sherrod Brown ahead of Jon Husted. Wedgewood Polls, surveying 800 likely voters August 11-13, had Brown at 48 percent to 44. Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, with 1,008 registered voters August 6-10, had Brown at 53 to 45. Michigan's two surveys disagreed: Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, 1,006 registered voters August 6-10, had Mike Rogers at 51 percent to Abdul El-Sayed's 47, while GBAO, 800 likely voters over the same dates, had El-Sayed at 50 to 44. In North Carolina, Harper Polling gave Roy Cooper 52 percent to Michael Whatley's 39 among 600 likely voters August 9-10.

Other races are close in single surveys. Emerson College, polling 1,000 Texas likely voters August 9-10, had Ken Paxton at 47 percent and James Talarico at 46. Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research had Troy Jackson at 48 percent to Susan Collins's 46 in Maine among 1,000 registered voters August 6-10. Impact Research, with 400 likely voters in WI-1 on August 6-9, had the Republican at 49 percent and the Democrat at 48. In OH-7, Bedrock Polling put the Democrat at 43 percent to the Republican's 35 among 866 likely voters August 7-10. Idaho's two polls diverge: Peak Insights, 500 likely voters August 11-13, had Jim Risch at 52 percent to independent Todd Achilles's 18, while The Bullfinch Group, 608 likely voters on August 13, had Risch at 34 and Achilles at 30.