Houston Hobby School poll finds Texas Senate close, and our forecast holds at 67%
A 2,000-voter University of Houston survey has Talarico at 48 and Paxton at 46, and it left our model's estimate and average margin where they were.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 19, 2026 at 1:02 AM EDT
A University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey of 2,000 likely voters, fielded October 10-14, puts Democrat James Talarico at 48% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46%, with 3% choosing another option. That two-point gap describes a close race.
The poll did not move our forecast. Our model gives Talarico a 67 in 100 chance of winning this open seat, now held by Republican John Cornyn. That is the same as in our previous run earlier today. Paxton's chance stays at 33%. Our model's average margin is unchanged at D+2.3.
The only shift is at the edge of the range. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile outcomes now run from R+6.1 to D+10.6, against R+6.1 to D+10.7 before this poll. The span still runs from a clear Paxton win to a clear Talarico win.
The new survey sits close to what our model already expected. Its two-point Talarico edge is near our average margin of D+2.3, which is why it confirmed the estimate rather than changing it.
Texas feeds into the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning Senate control and an average of 51.0 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. The election is 15 days away.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs · Oct 14, 2026 · n=2,000 · Texas Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.