Trafalgar poll finds Texas Senate race inside a point; forecast unchanged at 71-29

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters in Texas, fielded September 15-17, put James Talarico at 46.4 percent and Ken Paxton at 45.2 percent, with 2.5 percent for other candidates. A gap of 1.2 points on that sample is too small to separate the two candidates; the poll describes a close race and nothing more.

Our forecast did not move. The model gives Talarico a 71 in 100 chance in the open Texas seat, with Paxton at 29 percent. The mean margin is D+3.3, and the 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+6.5 to D+13.0. The run before this one, at 4:32 PM ET on September 18, had the same 71-29 split and the same mean margin, with the upper bound a tenth of a point wider at D+13.1. One poll consistent with what the average already showed is what a forecast that does not move looks like.

The wide interval is the part worth holding onto. Our model's own range still allows a Paxton win by six and a half points and a Talarico win by thirteen. Forty-six days out, a projected three-point mean margin leaves a large share of outcomes on the Republican side of the line, which is why the probability sits nearer 70 than 90.

Texas matters to the Senate picture because that picture is close to even. Our model gives Democrats a 51 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 48 percent, on a mean of 50.4 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 chamber breaks their way. Our national generic-ballot average, drawn from 28 polls over the last 45 days, stands at D+7.3.