Sponsored Stratus poll finds Texas Senate tied at 48, and our forecast does not move

A new Stratus Intelligence poll of the Texas Senate race finds Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 48% each. The survey of 865 likely voters was fielded September 22-24 and sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority.

The poll changed nothing in our forecast. Our model gives Talarico a 56 in 100 chance of winning the open seat now held by Republican John Cornyn, and Paxton a 44% chance. Those are the same figures as our 8:32 AM ET run earlier today. Our average margin also stays at D+0.8, with a 5th-to-95th percentile range from R+8.5 to D+10.1.

A tie is close to what our model already expected, so it had little room to shift the numbers. The poll's sponsor is a group with a stated partisan aim, and a sponsored survey that still shows an even race does not pull our estimate toward Paxton. The wide range in our model reflects how much uncertainty remains with 36 days to the election. A Paxton win by several points and a Talarico win by several points both sit comfortably inside it.

Texas matters to the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 54% chance of winning Senate control. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority, because a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans through the vice president. Our model's average outcome is 50.7 Democratic seats, just short of that line. A close race in Texas is one reason Senate control remains near an even chance in our estimate.