Fox News poll has Talarico ahead 53-46 in Texas, and our forecast moves to 61%

A new Fox News survey of the Texas Senate race, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research among 1,203 registered voters and fielded September 24-28, finds Democrat James Talarico at 53% and Republican Ken Paxton at 46%.

That result moved our forecast. Our model now gives Talarico a 61 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, up from 56% in the run published at 8:32 AM ET today. Paxton's chance falls from 44% to 39%. Our projected margin shifts from D+0.8 to D+1.6.

The change is the news. Our estimate had held at 56% through several recent releases. This poll's seven-point gap is wider than the other recent surveys this site has covered, and it was enough to nudge the average.

The race remains close in our model. Its 5th-to-95th percentile range for the final margin runs from R+7.6 to D+10.7, so outcomes in either direction remain well within what our simulations produce. A projected margin under two points is not a comfortable position for either candidate, and one poll of registered voters carries limited weight on its own.

Texas matters to the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 55% chance of winning Senate control and projects them at 50.6 seats on average, just short of the 51 they need. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.1 across 30 polls from the past 45 days.