Texas Senate poll has Talarico three ahead of Paxton; forecast stays 70-30

A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey for Telemundo, fielded September 8-10 among 625 likely voters, has Democrat James Talarico at 46 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 43 percent, with 3 percent for another candidate. The three-point gap on that sample size is too narrow to call a lead; the poll describes a close race.

Our forecast did not change. The model gives Talarico a 70 in 100 chance of winning the Texas Senate seat, with Paxton at 30 percent — identical to our previous run at 12:32 PM ET on September 15. The mean margin stays at D+3.2, and the 5th-to-95th percentile range still spans R+6.7 to D+13.0, which is to say our simulations include comfortable outcomes for either candidate.

That stability is the story. The new Mason-Dixon numbers sit close to the model's own central estimate, so they confirm rather than revise what the average already carried. Our published run of Texas polling this month has ranged from a tie to a five-point Talarico edge, and this one falls inside that band. The seat is open: incumbent Republican John Cornyn is not on our candidate list for the race.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 48 in 100 chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 51 percent, with a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. That arithmetic is why a race our model rates at 70-30 still leaves the chamber close to even. Our generic-ballot average stands at D+6.8 across 24 polls over the past 45 days.