Times/Siena poll puts Talarico at 50.8, Paxton at 45.09; our Texas odds rise to 65%

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 615 likely voters, fielded September 21-30, has Democrat James Talarico at 50.8 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 45.09 percent in the race for the open Texas Senate seat. John Cornyn, the Republican incumbent, is not among the candidates.

The poll moved our forecast. Our model now gives Talarico a 65 in 100 chance of winning, up from 61 percent in our run earlier this morning. Paxton's chance falls from 39 percent to 35 percent. Our projected margin shifts from D+1.6 to D+2.1.

The shift is modest, and the race remains close. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+7.0 to D+11.1, compared with R+7.5 to D+10.7 before this poll. Both ends moved slightly toward the Democrat, but a Paxton win remains well inside the range of outcomes we simulate.

The Texas race matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 45 percent, with a mean of 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.