Big Data Poll finds a close Texas Senate race; forecast holds at 56-44

A new Big Data Poll survey for the Public Polling Project finds a close race for the open Texas Senate seat. Among 698 likely voters, fielded September 24-26, Democrat James Talarico had 46.8% and Republican Ken Paxton had 44.9%, with 8.3% choosing another option. Among the survey's broader sample of 793 registered voters, over the same dates, Talarico had 46.4% and Paxton had 43.8%, with 9.8% for another option.

Neither gap is large. The poll did not report a margin of error, and differences of about two to three points in samples of this size are too small to count as a lead. The race is close.

The survey confirms our forecast. Our model still gives Talarico a 56 in 100 chance of winning, the same as in our previous run earlier today. Our projected margin edged from D+0.9 to D+0.8. The model's range of plausible outcomes, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, runs from R+8.6 to D+10.2, which leaves either candidate well within reach.

The seat matters for the chamber. Our model puts the Democrats' chance of winning Senate control at 55% and the Republicans' at 44%, with an average of 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.