Texas Senate polls hold their shape; our forecast edges to 68-32 for Talarico

The polling in the Texas Senate race has settled into a narrow band, and our forecast moved only slightly with it. Our model now gives James Talarico a 68 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, up from 66 percent in the run at 4:03 PM ET. Our mean margin is D+3.0, against D+2.7 before. The 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+7.6 to D+13.5, so a comfortable win for either Talarico or Ken Paxton remains inside it.

The most recent surveys do not point in one direction. A Slingshot Strategies poll for Texas Public Opinion Research, 1,000 likely voters fielded August 21-24, had Talarico at 48 percent and Paxton at 42. An Emerson College survey for Nexstar of 1,000 likely voters, fielded August 9-10, had Paxton at 47.25 percent and Talarico at 46.25 — effectively a tie. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, polling 1,200 likely voters July 27-30, had Talarico 47, Paxton 45, also close. Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News, 1,006 registered voters fielded July 23-27, had Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 48. An earlier Slingshot poll of 1,048 likely voters, July 15-17, had Talarico 45, Paxton 40.

Taken together, those five surveys confirm rather than change the picture our model already had: a Democratic edge of a few points in a state our forecast still treats as competitive for both candidates, 64 days from the November 3 election.

Nationally, our average of 28 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.5. Our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of Senate control, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats; 51 seats are needed, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Texas is one of the seats that decides which side of that line the chamber lands on.