Slingshot poll has Talarico up five in Texas; forecast moves to 56-44
Our model's average margin edges to D+0.9 in a race whose plausible outcomes still run from a clear Paxton win to a clear Talarico win.
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · September 25, 2026 at 11:02 AM EDT
A new Slingshot Strategies survey for Texas Public Opinion Research finds Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 44% in the Texas Senate race, with 3% choosing another option. The poll of 1,007 likely voters was fielded September 19-22.
The poll moved our forecast slightly. Our model now gives Talarico a 56 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, up from 54% in the run earlier this morning. Paxton's chance is 44%, down from 46%. Our model's average margin moved from D+0.6 to D+0.9.
A five-point poll result did not produce a five-point forecast. Our model still treats the race as close. Its range of likely outcomes, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, runs from Paxton winning by 8.5 points to Talarico winning by 10.3. That range barely changed from the previous run, which spanned R+8.8 to D+10.1. The new numbers fit within the spread our model already expected.
The race matters for Senate control. Our model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning a majority and Republicans a 43% chance. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 50.8 Democratic seats, which is short of the Democratic threshold and leaves little room in any single contested race.
There are 39 days until the election on November 3.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Slingshot Strategies · Sep 22, 2026 · n=1,007 · Texas Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.
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