Texas Senate poll shows Paxton and Talarico tied at 50

A new Overton Insights survey of 1,167 likely voters in Texas, sponsored by the Texas Public Policy Foundation and fielded August 24-26, puts Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico level at 50 percent each.

Our model now gives Talarico a 64 in 100 chance of winning the open Texas Senate seat, with Paxton at 36 percent. The previous run, at 8:32 AM ET today, had it 66-34. Our mean margin moved from D+2.7 to D+2.2. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range for the result is now R+8.2 to D+12.7, slightly wider on the Republican side than the R+7.7 to D+13.2 range in the prior run.

That is a small move in Paxton's direction, and it is the second consecutive step of that kind: this site published a 68-32 figure for Talarico on August 31. A tied poll sits below our current mean margin, so it pulls the average down without changing the basic picture. Our model still treats the race as close and still favors Talarico narrowly on the margin while giving Paxton better than a one-in-three chance.

The seat matters to the chamber arithmetic. Our model puts the mean Democratic Senate seat count at 50.2. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our Senate control probabilities are 48 percent for the Democrats and 51 percent for the Republicans. Nationally, our generic ballot average stands at D+6.5 across 26 polls in a 45-day window.

Sixty-two days remain until the November 3 election. On the evidence in this poll, the Texas race is a coin flip in the polling and a narrow Democratic edge in our forecast; nothing in today's number resolves the gap between the two.