Pulse poll puts Paxton at 48 and Talarico at 45 as our Texas forecast stays put
The new likely-voter survey is one of the better Republican results of the month, yet our model's estimate of the race is unchanged from its previous run today.
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · September 29, 2026 at 6:02 PM EDT
A Pulse Decision Science survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 24-27, has Republican Ken Paxton at 48% and Democrat James Talarico at 45% in the Texas Senate race. A three-point gap in a single poll of that size is close, and the race should be read that way.
The poll did not move our forecast. Our model gives Talarico a 55 in 100 chance of winning the open seat and Paxton a 45% chance, the same split as our previous run earlier today. Our model's average margin is D+0.8, also unchanged. Its range is wide: the 5th to 95th percentile of outcomes runs from R+8.5 to D+10.0.
The survey confirms what our forecast already reflected. Our model treats this contest as close to even, and a single poll showing Paxton narrowly ahead fits inside that picture.
The race matters for the national count. Our model gives Democrats a 59% chance of winning control of the Senate, with an average of 51.0 Democratic seats against the 51 they need. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Pulse Decision Science · Sep 27, 2026 · n=800 · Texas Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.
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