Texas Senate forecast falls to 55-45 as Marist finds Paxton nine ahead

Our model's estimate of the Democratic chance in the Texas Senate race fell from 70% on September 16 to 55% now, a move of 14.6 points toward the Republican over seven days. The open seat, held by Republican John Cornyn, is contested by Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Our mean margin narrowed from D+3.1 a week ago to D+0.8, and our 5th-to-95th-percentile range now runs from R+8.7 to D+10.3, against R+6.7 to D+12.9 in the earlier run.

The clearest new input is a Marist University survey of 1,139 registered voters fielded September 17-20, which had Paxton at 52% and Talarico at 43%. That is the only poll in our Texas file that puts Paxton ahead by more than a point, and it arrived after the run that had the race at 70-30.

The rest of the week's polling was close. A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,079 likely voters, fielded September 15-17, had Talarico 46.4% to Paxton 45.2%. A Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center survey of 1,800 likely voters, fielded September 15-19, had Talarico 47% to Paxton 46%. Both are close races rather than leads. Earlier in the month, a ReconMR/Siena/Texas A&M Bush School survey of 614 likely voters, fielded September 8-11, had Talarico up 49% to 43%.

So the movement is one poll against several, weighted by our model's handling of sample and recency; our current figure is a 55 in 100 chance for Talarico, close to a coin flip. Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 54% chance of Senate control. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans 50, because a 50-50 tie is broken by a Republican vice president. Our mean Democratic seat count is 50.6.