Our Texas Senate forecast moves from 56% to 65% for Talarico over seven days

Our model now gives James Talarico, the Democrat, a 65 in 100 chance of winning the open Texas Senate seat against Ken Paxton, the Republican. In our run of September 26 at 6:32 AM ET, the figure was 56%. The change came over seven days.

The expected margin moved with it. Our model's mean outcome went from D+0.9 to D+2.1. Its range of plausible results, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, now runs from R+7.0 to D+11.1, compared with R+8.5 to D+10.3 a week ago. Both ends shifted toward the Democrat, and a Paxton win remains well inside that range.

The polls in our data for this race were all fielded in the second half of September, and they do not point in one direction. A Pulse Decision Science survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 24-27, had Paxton at 48% and Talarico at 45%. A Stratus Intelligence poll of 865 likely voters, sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority and fielded September 22-24, had them tied at 48%. A Big Data Poll survey of 698 likely voters, fielded September 24-26, found a close race at 46.8% for Talarico and 44.9% for Paxton.

The most recent survey by field dates is from The New York Times/Siena University. Its poll of 615 likely voters, fielded September 21-30, put Talarico at 50.8% and Paxton at 45.09%. Two Fox News polls fielded September 24-28 also had Talarico ahead, by 53% to 46% among 1,203 registered voters.

The Texas result feeds into the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 55% chance of Senate control, which requires 51 seats; Republicans need 50, because a 50-50 tie goes to them.