Talarico leads by six in new Texas poll; our forecast moves to 65-35

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,000 likely voters, fielded August 21-24, puts Democrat James Talarico at 48 percent and Republican Ken Paxton at 42 percent in the Texas Senate race. It is the only new poll in this run.

Our model now gives Talarico a 65 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 60 percent in our previous run earlier today. The mean margin moved from D+1.8 to D+2.5. The spread around that mean barely changed: our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+8.5 to D+13.1, against R+8.8 to D+12.4 before. That is a small adjustment in the same direction our numbers were already pointing, not a new picture. This site reported a Democratic edge in Texas polling two days ago, and the new survey is consistent with it.

The gap between the poll and the model is worth stating plainly. A six-point margin in one survey of likely voters is wider than the 2.5-point average margin our model expects, because the model weighs state fundamentals and national conditions alongside the polls rather than reading the most recent number as the answer. Our national generic ballot average stands at D+6.6 across 24 polls over the past 45 days. The seat is open; Republican John Cornyn is the incumbent and is not on the ballot in this matchup.

Texas is not enough on its own. Our model gives Democrats a 44 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 56 percent, with a mean of 49.9 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. A race our model rates at 65 percent for the Democrat is still a race the Republican wins in roughly a third of our simulations.