A close CA-6 poll trims Richard Pan's projected margin but leaves his odds unchanged

A new poll of California's 6th District finds a close race between Democrat Richard Pan and Kevin Kiley, the independent incumbent. The Bullfinch Group survey of 927 likely voters, fielded September 1-6 and sponsored by the Independent Leadership Council, puts Pan at 36.7 percent and Kiley at 36.5 percent. That gap is too small to call a lead for either candidate.

The poll moved our forecast's margin but not its bottom line. Our model now projects Pan ahead by an average of 22.6 points, down from 25.8 points in the run published earlier today. The model's range narrowed toward Kiley as well: its 5th-to-95th percentile span now runs from Pan by 8.4 to Pan by 36.8, compared with Pan by 11.6 to Pan by 40.1 before. Even at the low end of that range, Pan is ahead. Our model gives him a 100 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same estimate as before the poll.

The distance between this survey and our projection is wide. The model weighs the single poll against its other inputs rather than adopting it outright, which is why a near-tie in one survey shifts the average margin by about three points instead of erasing it. The poll also leaves a large share of respondents backing neither candidate, and its sponsor is an advocacy group.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, with an average of 245.3 seats against the 218 needed. That estimate is somewhat firmer than it should be, because our simulation does not yet link the errors of demographically similar districts in different parts of the country.