Fox News poll finds a close Michigan Senate race; our forecast eases to 76 percent

A new Fox News poll of the open Michigan Senate seat finds a close race. The survey, conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research and fielded September 24-28, shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 50 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 49 percent among 1,028 likely voters. Among the broader sample of 1,203 registered voters, El-Sayed is at 51 percent and Rogers at 48 percent.

Both margins are small enough that the poll is best read as showing a close contest rather than a clear edge for either candidate. The likely-voter figure is the tighter of the two.

The poll moved our forecast slightly toward Rogers. Our model now gives El-Sayed a 76 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 79 percent in our previous run earlier today. Our projected margin narrowed from D+4.5 to D+4.1. The range of outcomes in our simulations, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, now runs from R+5.2 to D+13.3, compared with R+4.7 to D+13.7 before.

The change is modest. El-Sayed remains the favorite in our model, and the new numbers mostly trim the lead our forecast had built rather than overturn it. Rogers's chance in our model rose from 21 percent to 24 percent.

The seat matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 52 percent chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 50.5 Democratic seats across our simulations. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because a 50-50 tie is broken by the vice president, a Republican.