NYT/Siena puts El-Sayed up about five in Michigan; our forecast holds at 70 percent

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 605 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 15-22, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 49.5 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44.5 percent, a margin of about five points.

Our model gives El-Sayed a 70 in 100 chance of winning the seat, unchanged from the previous run earlier this morning. The mean projected margin moved from D+2.9 to D+3.1. The 5th-to-95th percentile range now spans R+6.4 to D+12.6, close to the R+6.6 to D+12.4 it covered before. On our numbers, this poll confirmed the state of the race rather than changed it.

That range is the useful part. It still contains outcomes in which Rogers wins by six and outcomes in which El-Sayed wins by double digits, which is a fair summary of the polling we have logged in Michigan this month: our previous write-ups have described the race as close and have moved the probability only within a few points in either direction. The seat is open, with Democrat Gary Peters the incumbent and neither candidate running as one.

Michigan matters to the Senate arithmetic. Our model has Democratic control at 51 percent and Republican control at 49 percent, with a mean of 50.5 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 98 in 100 chance of a majority, with a mean of 245.8 seats against the 218 needed. One caveat on that House figure is ours: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across state lines, so the 98 percent is marginally firmer than a fuller error model would leave it. Our generic-ballot average stands at D+8.3 across 30 polls.