Michigan Senate forecast rises to 69 percent for El-Sayed as August polls firm up

The most recent survey of the open Michigan Senate race, an EPIC-MRA poll of 600 likely voters fielded August 22-28, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 47 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 43 percent. A four-point gap on a sample that size is small enough to be consistent with a tied race, so the poll is best read as another close reading rather than a clear lead.

It is not the only recent one. A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 registered voters, fielded August 11-17, had El-Sayed at 46 percent and Rogers at 39. A GBAO poll of 800 likely voters conducted for Senate Majority PAC, fielded August 6-10, had El-Sayed at 50 and Rogers at 44. Running against them is a Beacon Research/Shaw & Company survey of 1,006 registered voters for Fox News, also fielded August 6-10, which had Rogers at 51 and El-Sayed at 47. Earlier EPIC-MRA work, fielded July 24-31 with 600 likely voters, had Rogers ahead 46-43.

Our model now gives El-Sayed a 69 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Rogers a 31 percent chance, with a mean margin of D+5.7. The previous run had El-Sayed at 63 percent and a mean margin of D+2.1. The direction is the same as it has been; what changed is the size of the projected margin, and the model's 5th-to-95th percentile range still spans R+12.9 to D+24.4, which is another way of saying the outcome is not settled.

The national picture is closer than this race. Our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 50 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats; Republicans need 50, because the payload's tiebreak rule sends a 50-50 chamber to them through a Republican vice president.