Wedgewood poll puts El-Sayed at 53 percent; our Michigan forecast edges to 74 percent

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 607 likely voters, fielded October 8-9, has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 53 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 47 percent in the open Michigan Senate race. That is a wider gap than most recent surveys of the race have shown. With a sample of that size, the result is consistent with a race that remains competitive.

Our model now gives El-Sayed a 74 in 100 chance of winning, up from 73 percent in our previous run earlier on October 9. Rogers's chance slips from 27 percent to 26 percent. Our projected margin moves from D+3.3 to D+3.5.

The poll moves the forecast slightly in El-Sayed's direction but does not change its shape. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+5.3 to D+12.4, compared with R+5.5 to D+12.1 before. A Rogers win remains well within the outcomes our simulations produce.

The seat matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 61% chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 51.0 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. The election is 25 days away.