Trafalgar finds El-Sayed and Rogers within two points; our Michigan forecast barely moves

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,085 likely voters, fielded September 28-30, finds the open Michigan Senate race close. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrat, is at 46.9 percent and Mike Rogers, the Republican, is at 45.1 percent in that poll, a gap of 1.8 points.

Our model now gives El-Sayed a 76 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 77 percent in our run at 8:32 AM ET today. Rogers's chance rises to 24 percent from 23 percent. Our projected margin is unchanged at D+4.0.

The poll confirmed more than it changed. It shows a tighter race than our average, which is why the estimate dipped, but one survey carries limited weight against the rest of the polling in our model. The plausible range barely shifted: our model's 5th-to-95th percentile outcomes now run from R+5.2 to D+13.1, compared with R+5.2 to D+13.2 before.

That range still includes a Rogers win by several points. A projected margin of four points with 32 days to go leaves real room for movement in either direction.

Michigan matters to the larger picture. Our model gives Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 50.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.