Torchlight poll finds Michigan Senate race close; our forecast stays at 72 percent

A Torchlight Strategies survey of 643 likely voters, fielded September 15-19 and sponsored by Common Sense for America PAC, finds the Michigan Senate race close. It puts Republican Mike Rogers at 44.4 percent and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 43.1 percent. The gap is small, and the poll does not show either candidate with a clear lead.

The new numbers did not move our forecast. Our model gives El-Sayed a 72 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, the same as in our previous run at 4:32 PM ET today. Rogers's chance stays at 28%. Our projected margin is unchanged at D+3.4. The only shift is at the Democratic end of our range, where the 95th percentile moved from D+12.8 to D+12.9. The 5th percentile remains R+6.0.

That range is wide. Our model still counts a Rogers win by several points among plausible outcomes, and a close result in a single poll fits inside it. This survey was also paid for by a partisan sponsor, which is worth weighing alongside its topline.

Michigan matters for the chamber. Our model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 43% chance. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 50.8 Democratic seats, just short of the Democratic threshold, with 39 days until the November 3 election.