Marist poll has El-Sayed up 12 in Michigan; our forecast moves to 79 percent

A Marist University survey of 1,235 registered voters, fielded September 24-27, finds Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 54 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 42 percent in the Michigan Senate race. That 12-point gap is wider than anything in the polls this site has covered here over the past week.

The new poll moved our forecast. Our model now gives El-Sayed a 79 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, up from 74 percent in the run earlier this morning. Rogers's chance falls from 26 percent to 21 percent. Our average margin shifts from D+3.6 to D+4.6.

The range of plausible outcomes remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile band now runs from R+4.6 to D+13.8, compared with R+5.7 to D+12.8 before. A Rogers win still sits inside that band. The Marist figure of D+12 lands near its Democratic edge, which is why a single poll moves the average by a point rather than more. The survey measured registered voters rather than likely voters.

The seat is currently held by Democrat Gary Peters, who is not on the ballot. Michigan matters to the larger picture. Our model gives Democrats a 58 percent chance of winning Senate control, against 41 percent for Republicans. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 50.9 Democratic seats, just short of the 51 the party needs.