Sponsored GBAO poll has El-Sayed at 48 percent in Michigan; our forecast stays at 73

A GBAO survey of 800 likely voters, fielded September 19-22 and sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, puts Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 44 percent in the race for Michigan's open Senate seat, now held by Democrat Gary Peters. Four points in a single poll of that size is a close race, not a settled one.

The poll did not change our forecast. Our model gives El-Sayed a 73 in 100 chance of winning, the same as in our run at 8:32 AM ET today. Our average margin is also unchanged at D+3.4, with a 5th-95th percentile range from R+5.9 to D+12.7. That range includes outcomes in which Rogers wins.

The GBAO result sits close to where our average already was, which is why it confirmed the estimate rather than moving it. Across our coverage over the past week, the forecast has edged from 69 percent to 73 percent as polls came in; this survey adds to that picture without extending it.

The race matters for the chamber. Our model gives Democrats a 54% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 45%, with Democrats averaging 50.7 seats in our simulations. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.