Suffolk poll gives El-Sayed a 7-point Michigan lead; our forecast rises to 71 percent

A Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan, fielded September 16-20, put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46.8 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39.6 percent, with 0.6 percent for another candidate. That is a 7.2-point margin, wider than the results that led our recent write-ups on this race.

Our model now gives El-Sayed a 71 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 67 percent in the previous run earlier this morning. The mean projected margin moved from D+2.6 to D+3.2, and the 5th-to-95th percentile range narrowed slightly, from R+7.0 through D+12.2 to R+6.4 through D+12.8. That is a modest shift on a single poll of moderate size, and the range still spans outcomes on both sides.

The seat is open: Democrat Gary Peters is the incumbent and is not on the ballot, leaving El-Sayed and Rogers as the candidates. Our national numbers put the generic congressional ballot at D+7.6 across 28 polls in a 45-day window, so the Suffolk result sits close to the national environment our model is working from rather than away from it.

Michigan matters to the chamber arithmetic. Our model gives Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 44 percent, with a mean of 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. A race our model rates at roughly seven-in-ten for one side is not a settled one, and with 42 days until the November 3 election there is time for the polling average to move again.