A Pulido-leading poll in TX-15 barely moves our forecast

A new poll in Texas's 15th District shows Democrat Bobby Pulido ahead of Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz. The Normington, Petts & Associates survey of 400 likely voters, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded September 24-28, has Pulido at 54% and De La Cruz at 41%.

Our forecast barely moved. Our model now gives Pulido a 37 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 36% in the run an hour earlier. De La Cruz's chance is 63%, down from 64%. Our projected margin went from R+3.0 to R+2.9.

The poll's 13-point Democratic margin sits beyond the Democratic end of our model's range for this race. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+17.0 to D+11.3. A single sponsored survey of 400 voters is one input, and our model treated it as one. The result confirms the forecast already in place rather than changing it: De La Cruz remains the modest favorite in our estimate, in a race our range shows could break either way.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, with an average of 245.5 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. That figure is somewhat firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it does not link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.2 across 30 polls from the past 45 days.