TX-15 forecast sits at 57 in 100 for Pulido after single new poll

One new poll is on the board in Texas's 15th District. A Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey of 700 likely voters, fielded August 18-22, put Democrat Bobby Pulido at 50 percent and Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz at 45 percent. It is the only poll of this race in our current data.

That single result carried our forecast across even money. Our model now gives Pulido a 57 in 100 chance, with a mean margin of D+1.7. The run before it, at 10:30 a.m. ET on August 26, had De La Cruz at 55 percent and a mean margin of R+1.2. The shift in margin is under three points, which is what a lone poll in a district with little other data does to an average.

The uncertainty around that number has not narrowed. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range for the November margin runs from R+15.1 to D+18.3, wider than 30 points end to end. A forecast this close to 50-50 is a statement about how little separates the two candidates, not about who finishes ahead.

Nationally, our average of 27 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.5. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of winning at least the 218 seats needed for control, with a mean of 241 seats. One caveat on that figure is ours: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it has no term linking demographically similar districts across regions, because we lack the cluster data to build one. Without it, the House control probability is marginally firmer than it should be.