Model moves 18 points toward De La Cruz in TX-15, with no new polling

Our forecast in Texas's 15th District moved toward the Republican incumbent over the past week. On August 26 our model gave Bobby Pulido a 56% chance; as of midday September 2 it gives him a 38 in 100 chance, with Monica De La Cruz at 62%. That is a shift of 18 points of Democratic win probability across seven days.

The mean margin moved with it, from D+1.6 in the earlier run to R+3.0 now. The spread stayed wide in both: our current run puts the 5th-to-95th percentile range from R+19.1 to D+13.2, against R+14.7 to D+18.1 a week ago. By our own numbers this remains a district either candidate can win.

No new district polling arrived between the two runs. The most recent survey in our file is from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, 700 likely voters fielded August 18-22, which put Pulido at 50% and De La Cruz at 45%; it was already available to the earlier run. Before that, Normington, Petts & Associates, polling likely voters July 23-27 for House Majority PAC, had Pulido at 51% and De La Cruz at 45%, and Applecart, with 802 likely voters May 18-25 for WelcomePAC, had a close race at 48% to 46%. Public Policy Polling, surveying 533 registered voters September 10-11, 2025 for House Majority PAC, had De La Cruz at 41% and Pulido at 38%.

So the movement is ours, not the polls'. The payload behind this run does not identify what drove it, and we are not going to guess at a cause.

Nationally, our average of 26 generic ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.5, and our model gives Democrats a 93% chance of winning at least the 218 seats needed for House control. One caveat on that figure: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but has no term linking demographically similar districts across the map, so our House control number is somewhat firmer than a fuller treatment would leave it.