Siena poll has Hinson a point ahead in Iowa, and our estimate eases two points

A New York Times/Siena University survey of 606 likely voters in Iowa, fielded September 22 to October 1, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 47.8% and Democrat Josh Turek at 47.0%. A gap of under one point in a poll of that size is not a lead. The race is close.

Our model now gives Turek a 58 in 100 chance of winning the open seat currently held by Republican Joni Ernst, down from 60% in our previous run earlier this morning. Our projected margin narrowed from D+1.5 to D+1.1. The poll did not change the shape of the race. It nudged our estimate slightly toward Hinson after our last update moved it toward Turek, and it left the contest where our model has had it: close, with Turek marginally favored.

The spread of plausible outcomes remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+8.0 to D+10.2, compared with R+7.7 to D+10.6 before this poll. Thirty-one days before the election, that range covers a comfortable win for either candidate.

Iowa matters to the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 55% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 45%, with Democrats averaging 50.7 seats in our simulations. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our generic ballot average, built from 30 polls over 45 days, stands at D+8.1.