Our Iowa Senate estimate moves 41 points toward Turek in a week

Our model gave Democrat Josh Turek a 23 percent chance in Iowa's open Senate race in its August 23 run. As of Sunday night it gives him a 65 in 100 chance against Republican Ashley Hinson, a shift of 41.5 points toward the Democrat over seven days. The projected margin moved with it, from R+4.8 to D+2.4, and the model's 5th-to-95th percentile band now runs from R+8.1 to D+13.1.

Two Iowa polls arrived in that window. Wedgewood Polls surveyed 600 likely voters August 27-29 and had Hinson at 50 percent and Turek at 48 — a close race, and the one we noted here on Sunday. Abacus Data then surveyed 2,500 likely voters on August 29 and had Turek at 54 percent to Hinson's 45. The prior run's most recent Iowa data point was a Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters fielded August 20-23, which had Hinson at 45 and Turek at 41.

The Abacus sample is roughly four times the size of the other two and points the other direction, which is the bulk of what our average has to work with. We do not resolve disagreements between pollsters by choosing one; the model weights and blends them, and a single large survey moving an average this far is a reminder that the Iowa polling record here is thin. Joni Ernst, the Republican incumbent, is not on the ballot.

Iowa matters to the chamber picture. Our model gives Democrats a 51 percent chance of Senate control, with a mean of 50.3 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. On that arithmetic, a seat like this one is close to decisive.