Quantus finds a close Iowa Senate race, and our estimate eases toward Hinson

A new Quantus Insights survey of 738 likely voters, fielded September 28-29, finds the Iowa Senate race close. In a head-to-head question, Republican Ashley Hinson takes 51.2% to 48.8% for Democrat Josh Turek. In a version of the question that included other candidates, the same survey puts Hinson at 48.5%, Turek at 46.6% and other candidates at 1.7%. Neither gap is large enough to treat as a lead.

The poll moved our forecast slightly toward Hinson. Our model now gives Turek a 57 in 100 chance of winning the open seat, down from 60% in our previous run this morning. Hinson's chance rises to 43% from 40%. Our mean projected margin narrows to D+1.0 from D+1.5.

The range of plausible outcomes remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+8.2 to D+10.3, compared with R+7.8 to D+10.7 before. A result anywhere in that span would be consistent with our estimate.

The change reverses a small part of the movement toward Turek in recent weeks rather than overturning it. Our model still rates Turek as a modest favorite, and the race sits near even in both our projected margin and the new Quantus numbers.

Iowa matters for the chamber as a whole. Our model gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 46%, with a mean of 50.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.