Fox News poll shows a close Iowa Senate race, and our estimate barely moves

A Fox News survey by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, fielded September 24-28 among 1,008 likely voters, has Democrat Josh Turek at 49% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 47% in Iowa's open Senate race. That two-point gap is small enough that the race is best described as close.

The poll did little to our forecast. Our model now gives Turek a 58 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 57% in the run earlier this evening. Our projected margin moved from D+1.0 to D+1.1. The 5th-to-95th percentile range of outcomes in our model runs from R+8.1 to D+10.4, against R+8.2 to D+10.2 before. The new numbers confirm the existing picture rather than change it.

That picture is a narrow Democratic edge with wide uncertainty. Our range spans an eight-point Hinson win to a ten-point Turek win, and our model still gives Hinson a 42% chance. The seat is open; Republican Joni Ernst is the incumbent.

Iowa matters to the national count. Our model gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 46%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority, while Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our model's average outcome is 50.6 Democratic seats, just short of that threshold.

Nationally, our generic ballot average stands at D+8.1, based on 31 polls over a 45-day window. The election is 33 days away.