AtlasIntel has Turek at 50.5 in Iowa as our estimate moves back to 54%
A new survey of 1,219 likely voters nudges our model slightly toward the Democrat a day before the vote, though the Iowa Senate race remains close.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · November 2, 2026 at 9:03 PM EST
An AtlasIntel survey of 1,219 likely voters, fielded October 28 to November 1, has Democrat Josh Turek at 50.5% and Republican Ashley Hinson at 46.4% in the open-seat Iowa Senate race. The seat is currently held by Republican Joni Ernst.
The poll moved our forecast modestly. Our model now gives Turek a 54 in 100 chance of winning, up from 52% in our run at 8:32 PM ET on November 2. Our projected mean margin edged from D+0.3 to D+0.5. That reverses the small move toward Hinson our model registered earlier in the day. It does not change the shape of the race.
The range of plausible outcomes in our model remains wide. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+7.3 to D+8.3, compared with R+7.6 to D+8.1 in the previous run. A projected margin of half a point inside a band that spans roughly 15 points describes a race either candidate could win. Hinson's chance in our model is 46%.
One poll showing Turek above 50% is not enough to separate him from Hinson in our estimate. Our model weighs it alongside the other surveys in the race, and the result is a contest that stays close to even with the election on November 3.
Iowa sits inside a national picture that leans toward the Democrats. Our model gives Democrats an 80% chance of winning Senate control, with a mean of 52.5 Democratic seats against the 51 they need. Republicans need 50 seats, since a 50-50 tie goes to the Republican vice president. Our generic ballot average, built from 44 polls over 45 days, stands at D+8.7.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- AtlasIntel · Nov 1, 2026 · n=1,219 · Iowa Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.