Emerson poll shows Hinson ahead of Turek by four in Iowa

An Emerson College survey for Nexstar, of 750 likely voters fielded August 31 to September 1, puts Republican Ashley Hinson at 49.5 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 45.1 percent in Iowa's open Senate race. Less than a point went to other candidates.

Our forecast now gives Turek a 38 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with Hinson at 62 percent. The mean margin in our simulations is R+1.9, with a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from R+12.3 to D+8.5. That is close to where the model sat before the Emerson numbers were added: the previous run, at 6:32 AM ET on September 3, had Turek at 37 percent and a mean margin of R+2.1. The new poll confirmed the shape of the race our average already described rather than changing it.

The range matters more than the point estimate here. Our model treats outcomes from a double-digit Hinson win to a mid-single-digit Turek win as plausible, and the average margin of about two points is small enough that neither candidate is favored by much.

Nationally, our average of 27 generic ballot polls over the last 45 days stands at D+6.3. In the Senate, we give Democrats a 47 percent chance of winning control and Republicans 52 percent, with a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats; Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 chamber goes their way. Iowa is one of the seats that decides which side of that line the chamber lands on. In the House, where 218 seats are needed, our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of control and a mean of 239.5 seats. That House figure is marginally firmer than it should be: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but we have no data to correlate demographically similar districts across state lines, so one source of shared error is missing.