Our Iowa Senate estimate swings back toward Hinson, 59 to 41

The most recent survey of the Iowa Senate race, from Wedgewood Polls, put Republican Ashley Hinson at 50 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 48 percent among 600 likely voters fielded August 27-29. That is a close race.

Our forecast now gives Hinson a 59 percent chance of winning the open seat and Turek a 41 in 100 chance, with a mean margin of R+1.4 and a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from R+11.7 to D+9.1. That is a reversal from our previous run, timestamped 4:03 PM ET today, which had Turek at 65 percent and a mean margin of D+2.5 with a range of R+8.2 to D+13.2. The direction we reported over the weekend has been undone, and no new survey arrived to do it.

What the state's polling shows, taken together, is a race that has not moved much. Cygnal Political, polling 600 likely voters June 16-19 for the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation, had Hinson at 46 percent and Turek at 44.2. Global Strategy Group, with 1,000 likely voters June 8-11, had Turek at 47 and Hinson at 45. Public Policy Polling, surveying 557 registered voters June 3-4 for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, had both candidates at 46. Echelon Insights, with 377 likely voters April 3-9 for NetChoice, had Turek at 46 and Hinson at 45. None of those separations is large enough to call a lead in samples that size.

Iowa is one of the seats that decides the chamber. Our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 50 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our generic-ballot average stands at D+6.5, drawn from 28 polls over the past 45 days.