Quantus poll puts Ossoff up 7 in Georgia, and our forecast edges to 96%
The new survey sits slightly below our average margin, yet the low end of our simulated range in Georgia now falls entirely on the Democratic side.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 19, 2026 at 12:02 PM EDT
A Quantus Insights survey of 755 likely voters, fielded October 15-17, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 52.7% and Republican Mike Collins at 45.4%. That is a 7.3-point margin for the incumbent.
Our model now gives Ossoff a 96 in 100 chance of winning the Georgia Senate race, up from 95% in our run earlier today. Collins's chance is 4%. Our average margin moved from D+8.3 to D+8.9.
The poll mostly confirms what was already there. Its margin is a little narrower than our model's mean, and the topline barely moved. The change is at the edge of the range. In our previous run the 5th-to-95th percentile span ran from R+0.2 to D+16.7. It now runs from D+0.4 to D+17.3, so even the weaker end of our simulated outcomes has Ossoff narrowly ahead.
Georgia sits inside a closer national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 60% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 39%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority, and our model's mean is 51.0. Republicans need 50, because a 50-50 tie goes to them through the vice president. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.3 across 38 polls from the past 45 days.
The election is 15 days away.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Quantus Insights · Oct 17, 2026 · n=755 · Georgia Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.