Three YouGov samples put Ossoff up 8 to 10, and our Georgia number rises to 91%

Three YouGov surveys of Georgia, all fielded September 15-18, put Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins. Among 3,071 likely voters, Ossoff led 51-43. Among a separate sample of 3,301 likely voters, he led 52-42. Among 3,416 registered voters, he led 51-41.

Our model now gives Ossoff a 91 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+7.8 and a 5th-to-95th-percentile range running from R+1.7 to D+17.3. Before the new polls were absorbed, in a run earlier on September 23, the figure was 87 percent, with a mean margin of D+6.7 and a range from R+2.9 to D+16.3.

That is a small move in the direction the numbers already pointed. The three surveys are wider than our average was, and they carry weight because of their size, but they arrive in a race our model had already scored as clearly favoring the Democrat. The floor of the range has narrowed rather than the ceiling risen: a Republican win is still inside our distribution, at 9 percent, and the low end of the interval remains a narrow Collins victory.

Georgia sits inside a Senate map our model treats as close to even. Nationally we give Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning Senate control against 44 percent for Republicans, with a mean of 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our generic-ballot average stands at D+8.1 across 30 polls in the past 45 days, which is close to the margin these three Georgia surveys and our state mean now describe.