Echelon poll puts Ossoff up 15 in Georgia, and our forecast moves to 98%
The new survey widens our projected margin for the Democratic incumbent by more than a point and a half and narrows the range of outcomes in Collins's favor.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 27, 2026 at 1:03 PM EDT
An Echelon Insights survey of 508 likely voters, fielded October 16-23 and sponsored by NetChoice, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 55% and Republican Mike Collins at 40% in the Georgia Senate race. That is a 15-point gap.
The poll moved our forecast. Our model now gives Ossoff a 98 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 96% in the run earlier today at 12:32 PM ET. Collins's chance fell from 4% to 2%.
Our projected margin shifted further than the topline. Our model now puts Ossoff ahead by 10.2 points on average, up from 8.6. The range of outcomes moved with it. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from Ossoff by 2.2 points to Ossoff by 18.2, compared with Ossoff by 0.5 to Ossoff by 16.7 before this poll. Even the low end of that range now has Ossoff ahead by more than two points.
The Echelon result sits above our new average margin. One poll does not set the race on its own, and our model weighs it alongside the other surveys in its inputs.
Georgia feeds into the national Senate picture. Our model gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 51.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Echelon Insights · Oct 23, 2026 · n=508 · Georgia Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.