Ossoff at 52 in July AARP poll as our Georgia forecast holds near 83%

The most recent public polling of the Georgia Senate race has Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins. A Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research survey for AARP of 1,060 likely voters, fielded July 13-16, put Ossoff at 52 percent and Collins at 43. An Echelon Insights poll for NetChoice of 407 likely voters, fielded April 3-9, had Ossoff at 51 and Collins at 44. An Emerson College survey for Nexstar of 1,000 likely voters, fielded February 28 to March 2, had Ossoff at 47.7 and Collins at 43.3.

Our model gives Ossoff an 83 in 100 chance of winning the seat, against 17 percent for Collins, with a mean margin of D+6.1. The previous run, earlier the same afternoon, had 84 percent and D+6.2. That is not a change in the shape of the race; it is the ordinary drift of an average as data ages. The wider distribution is unchanged in substance: our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+4.4 to D+16.6, which leaves a Collins win well inside the model's error band.

The older polling in our file is thinner and noisier. Quantus Insights, fielding 624 registered voters on September 9-12, 2025, had Ossoff and Collins effectively tied at 37.8 and 37.7. University of Georgia polls for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, fielded April 15-24, 2025 among 1,000 registered voters, ranged from Ossoff up 54.2 to 37.3 in one matchup to Ossoff trailing 45.7 to 49.0 in another. Those are old enough that our average weights them lightly.

Georgia matters to the chamber math. Our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of Senate control and a mean of 50.2 seats, against the 51 they need; Republicans need 50, because the payload notes a 50-50 tie goes to them on the vice president's vote.