Our Georgia Senate number moves 8.7 points toward Ossoff over a week

Our model now gives Democrat Jon Ossoff a 93 in 100 chance of winning the Georgia Senate race against Republican Mike Collins. In our run of September 18, it put his chance at 84%. That is a move of 8.7 points of win probability toward the Democrat in 7 days.

The projected margin moved with it. Our model's mean margin went from D+6.0 to D+8.6. Its 5th-to-95th percentile range shifted from R+3.7 to D+15.8 in the earlier run to R+0.9 to D+18.0 now. The low end of that range still sits on the Republican side.

Six Georgia samples from three pollsters enter the picture across this span. Three YouGov samples fielded September 15-18 had Ossoff ahead 51% to 43% among 3,071 likely voters, 52% to 42% among 3,301 likely voters, and 51% to 41% among 3,416 registered voters. Two Big Data Poll samples fielded September 21-23 had him at 55.4% to 44.6% among 678 likely voters and 51.0% to 40.1% among 712 registered voters. We have covered those two sets already.

The newest entry is an InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 22-23. It had Ossoff at 50% and Collins at 42%. That 8-point margin is in the same range as the other samples and slightly below our model's current mean margin of D+8.6. Every sample in this set shows Ossoff with a lead of between 8 and about 11 points.

The race feeds into our national Senate estimate, which gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning a majority. By the payload's thresholds, Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50, because a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our model's mean is 50.8 Democratic seats.