InsiderAdvantage puts Ossoff up 8 in Georgia, and our forecast stays at 93%

An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 50% and Republican Mike Collins at 42%. That is an 8-point lead for the incumbent.

The poll changed little in our forecast. Our model still gives Ossoff a 93 in 100 chance of winning, the same as in our run earlier today at 12:32 PM ET. His projected margin moved from D+8.5 to D+8.6. The new survey sits almost exactly on that mean, which is why it confirmed the estimate rather than shifting it.

Our model's range of outcomes remains wide. Its 5th-to-95th percentile span runs from R+0.9 to D+18.0, nearly identical to the R+0.9 to D+17.9 range in the prior run. The low end of that range leaves room for a Collins win, which is where his 7% chance in our model comes from.

Georgia matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 43%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority, while Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to that party. Our model's mean outcome is 50.8 Democratic seats, just short of the Democratic threshold, so a race where Ossoff is a heavy favorite in our estimate still carries weight in the overall count.

The InsiderAdvantage result is one of several recent Georgia surveys showing Ossoff ahead by high single digits or more. With 39 days until the November 3 election, it adds to that pattern without changing our read of the race.