Trafalgar puts Ossoff up 6.6 in Georgia, in line with our average

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,091 likely voters in Georgia, fielded September 10-12, has Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff at 49.4% and Republican Mike Collins at 42.8%, with 1.3% for an independent. That is a margin of 6.6 points for Ossoff.

The poll sits close to where our model already had the race. Our forecast gives Ossoff an 84 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Collins a 16% chance, with a mean margin of D+6.1. The 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+3.9 to D+16.1. Before this poll was absorbed, at 4:32 PM ET on September 13, the model had the same win probability and the same mean margin; the top of the range moved by a tenth of a point. Nothing else changed.

That makes this a confirming poll rather than a new piece of information. A single survey landing within a half-point of our average has little to move.

The national picture is tighter than the Georgia race. Our model gives Democrats a 50% chance of Senate control and Republicans 50%, with a mean of 50.3 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our generic ballot average, across 22 polls in a 45-day window, stands at D+6.8.

In the House, our model gives Democrats a 95% chance of a majority, with a mean of 241 seats against the 218 needed. One caveat on that figure is ours: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but not across demographically similar districts in different places, because we have no cluster data for it. That omission makes the House control number marginally firmer than a fuller model would leave it.