Two Big Data Poll samples put Ossoff up about 11, and our Georgia number edges to 93%

A Big Data Poll survey of 678 likely voters, fielded September 21-23, has Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff at 55.4% and Republican Mike Collins at 44.6%, a margin of 10.8 points. The same pollster's registered-voter sample of 712, fielded over the same dates, has Ossoff at 51.0% and Collins at 40.1%, a margin of 10.9 points.

Our model now gives Ossoff a 93 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 91% in our run earlier this morning. Collins's chance falls from 9% to 7%. Our expected margin moves from D+7.8 to D+8.5.

The new numbers confirm the direction our forecast had already taken rather than change it. Both samples sit a little above our model's expected margin, which is why the estimate nudged up. The two versions of the survey differ mainly in how many respondents are undecided or backing neither candidate: the registered-voter sample leaves about nine points unallocated, while the likely-voter sample leaves none. The gap between the candidates is almost identical in each.

The outcomes our model considers plausible remain wide. Its 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+1.0 to D+17.9, compared with R+1.6 to D+17.2 before these polls. A Collins win sits inside that range, though near its edge.

Georgia is one piece of the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 50.8 Democratic seats against the 51 they need for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.