Democrats at 95 in 100 in the House, 45 percent in the Senate

Our model gives Democrats a 95 in 100 chance of winning House control this morning, with a mean of 242.4 seats against the 218 needed. Republicans are at 5 percent. That figure carries a caveat of our own making: our simulation draws error at the national, census-division, state and district levels, but not at the level of demographically similar districts scattered across different states. We have no cluster data for that term, so the House probability is marginally firmer than a fuller treatment would leave it. We are not putting a number on the gap, because this run does not measure one.

The Senate is closer. Our model puts Democratic control at 45 percent and Republican control at 55 percent, with a mean of 50.0 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our national generic ballot average stands at D+6.7, drawn from 24 polls fielded in the past 45 days.

Two Senate races moved in opposite directions. Ohio fell 15.7 points of Democratic win probability, from 68 percent to 52 percent. Michigan rose 12.5 points, from 44 percent to 57 percent, alongside a Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters, fielded August 11-17, that had Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39 percent. Maine gained 12.5 points, from 76 percent to 88 percent. Louisiana lost 9.0 points, from 10 percent to 1 percent. In the House, our estimate in Arkansas's 2nd District rose 9.4 points, from 21 percent to 30 percent, after a Hendrix College survey of 1,112 likely voters, fielded August 12-13, put the Democrat at 48 percent and the Republican at 44 percent.

The rest of last week's polling was concentrated in a handful of states. Saint Anselm College surveyed 1,411 New Hampshire likely voters August 17-18 and found Democrat Chris Pappas at 49 percent and Republican Scott Brown at 37 percent; the same pollster's survey of 701 likely voters in New Hampshire's 2nd District had the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 35 percent. InsiderAdvantage polled 800 Georgia likely voters August 16-17 and had Democrat Jon Ossoff at 50 percent to Republican Mike Collins's 43 percent. In Arkansas, J.L. Partners surveyed 803 likely voters August 14-18 and put Republican Tom Cotton at 51 percent to Democrat Hallie Shoffner's 35 percent. The same firm's survey of 500 likely voters in New York's 21st District, fielded August 15-17, had the Republican at 50 percent and the Democrat at 40 percent.

Several races were close in their latest numbers. In Minnesota, Deep Root Analytics polled 597 registered voters August 17-18 and found the Democrat at 50 percent to the Republican's 45; KTSP/SurveyUSA polled 661 likely voters August 13-17 and had 46 percent to 41 percent. The Bullfinch Group surveyed 608 Idaho likely voters August 16-19 and put independent Todd Achilles at 38 percent and Republican Jim Risch at 33 percent. Global Strategy Group's survey of 500 likely voters in Michigan's 7th District, fielded August 11-13, had the Democrat at 49 percent and the Republican at 47 percent.