Democrats at 94 in 100 in the House, 47 percent in the Senate

Our model gives Democrats a 94 in 100 chance of winning House control, against 6 percent for Republicans, with a mean of 242.5 Democratic seats and 218 needed for a majority. The Senate is closer to even and tilted the other way: Democrats 47 percent, Republicans 53 percent, on a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control there and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.7, drawn from 24 polls fielded over the last 45 days, as of 6:30 AM ET.

One caveat on the House figure. Our simulation draws error at four correlated levels — national, census division, state and district — but it has no term linking demographically similar districts in different places, because we have no cluster data to build one. That missing correlation makes the 94 percent marginally firmer than a fuller model would leave it. We have not measured the size of the gap, so we are not putting a number on it.

The largest move on the board over the past day was Michigan's Senate race, where our estimate of the Democratic chance rose 15.1 points, from 43 percent to 58 percent. A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters, fielded August 11-17, had Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 46 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 39. Ohio moved the other way, with the Democratic chance down 13.0 points to 54 percent from 67 percent. Maine rose 12.6 points to 87 percent, and Louisiana fell 8.4 points to 2 percent.

Two House districts also shifted. In Arkansas's 2nd, our Democratic estimate rose 9.5 points to 31 percent, after a Hendrix College poll of 1,112 likely voters, fielded August 12-13, put the Democrat at 48 percent and the Republican at 44. Ohio's 7th eased to 59 percent from 68 percent, which we noted separately.

Among other recent surveys, Saint Anselm College polled 1,411 New Hampshire likely voters August 17-18 and found Democrat Chris Pappas at 49 percent and Republican Scott Brown at 37; the same pollster's 701-voter sample in NH-2 had the Democrat at 50 and the Republican at 35. InsiderAdvantage, polling 800 Georgia likely voters August 16-17, had Democrat Jon Ossoff at 50 percent and Republican Mike Collins at 43. J.L. Partners had Republican Tom Cotton at 51 percent to Democrat Hallie Shoffner's 35 in Arkansas, from 803 likely voters fielded August 14-18, and the Republican at 50 to the Democrat's 40 in NY-21, from 500 likely voters fielded August 15-17. In Idaho, The Bullfinch Group's 608 likely voters, fielded August 16-19, put independent Todd Achilles at 38 percent and Republican Jim Risch at 33, a close result at that sample size. A KTSP/SurveyUSA poll of 661 Minnesota likely voters, fielded August 13-17, had the Democrat at 46 and the Republican at 41. In MI-7, Global Strategy Group's 500 likely voters, fielded August 11-13, had the Republican at 47 and the Democrat at 49.