Model has Democrats at 94 in 100 for the House, 47 percent in the Senate

Our model, as of 6:30 a.m. ET on August 22, gives Democrats a 94 in 100 chance of winning a House majority and a 47 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. The mean House outcome is 242.6 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for a majority. The mean Senate outcome is 50.2 Democratic seats; Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our published figures a day earlier were 93 for the House and 48 percent in the Senate. Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.7, drawn from 24 polls fielded within the last 45 days.

The largest movement of the past week was in the Michigan Senate race, where our estimate of the Democratic chance rose 14.7 points, from 43 to 57 percent. A Susquehanna Polling & Research survey of 800 likely voters, fielded August 11-17, had Abdul El-Sayed at 46 percent and Mike Rogers at 39 percent. Ohio moved the other way, down 9.9 points to 57 percent. Maine rose 9.9 points to 85 percent. Louisiana fell 8.4 points, to 1 percent.

Two House districts moved. In AR-2, our estimate of the Democratic chance rose 9.6 points to 31 percent; a Hendrix College poll of 1,112 likely voters, fielded August 12-13, put the Democrat at 48 percent and the Republican at 44 percent, a close result. In OH-7 the Democratic chance fell 7.9 points, to 60 percent. In MI-7, a Global Strategy Group poll of 500 likely voters fielded August 11-13 had the Democrat at 49 percent and the Republican at 47 percent, also close.

In other recent Senate polling, Saint Anselm College surveyed 1,411 New Hampshire likely voters on August 17-18 and found Chris Pappas at 49 percent and Scott Brown at 37 percent. The same pollster's survey of 701 likely voters in NH-2, fielded on the same dates, had the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 35 percent. InsiderAdvantage polled 800 Georgia likely voters on August 16-17 and had Jon Ossoff at 50 percent and Mike Collins at 43 percent. J.L. Partners, polling 803 Arkansas likely voters August 14-18, had Tom Cotton at 51 percent and Hallie Shoffner at 35 percent, and its survey of 500 likely voters in NY-21 on August 15-17 had the Republican at 50 percent and the Democrat at 40 percent. In Idaho, The Bullfinch Group polled 608 likely voters August 16-19 and found independent Todd Achilles at 38 percent and Jim Risch at 33 percent, a margin too narrow to separate them. A KTSP/SurveyUSA poll of 661 Minnesota likely voters, fielded August 13-17, had the Democrat at 46 percent and the Republican at 41 percent.

One note on the House number. Our simulation draws error at four correlated levels: national, census division, state and district. It does not include a term linking demographically similar districts in different places, because we have no cluster data for that term. The effect is that our House control probability is marginally firmer than a fuller decomposition would leave it. We have not measured the size of that difference for this run.