Lone TX-35 poll shows a close race; our model still has Garcia far ahead

A survey by Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PAC, fielded August 27-31 among likely voters, put Republican Carlos De La Cruz at 45 percent and Democrat Johnny Garcia at 44 percent in Texas's 35th District. No sample size or margin of error accompanies the numbers in our data, and a one-point gap is close enough that the poll is best read as showing a tight contest rather than a lead for either candidate.

Our forecast reads the district very differently. The model gives Garcia a 100 in 100 chance and a mean margin of D+43.9, with a 5th-to-95th-percentile range of D+27.8 to D+59.9. The previous run, from 8:32 AM ET on September 2, had the same win probability and a mean margin of D+43.8, with a range of D+27.7 to D+60.0. In other words, the new poll changed effectively nothing: one tenth of a point on the margin and no movement at all on the probability. Our model weighs district fundamentals alongside polling, and a single survey with a result this far from the projected margin does not move it.

Nationally, our average of 26 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.5. Our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for House control, with a mean of 240 Democratic seats. One caveat is ours to own: our simulation draws error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it has no term linking demographically similar districts across the map. Without that cluster structure, the 93 percent figure is marginally firmer than a fuller decomposition would leave it.

In the Senate, our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of the 51 seats they need for control and Republicans 51 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats.