New TX-10 poll closer than our average, but the forecast holds steady

A Change Research survey of 613 likely voters in Texas's 10th District, fielded September 18-22, found Republican Chris Gober at 48 percent and Democrat Caitlin Rourk at 41 percent.

The poll did not change our forecast. Our model gives Rourk a 1 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in the run before this poll was added, and Gober a 99% chance. Our model's average expected margin is R+18.8, also unchanged. The 7-point gap in the Change Research survey is narrower than that, but it sits inside the range our model already considered plausible. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+32.9 to R+4.6, compared with R+33.0 to R+4.6 in the previous run. Adding one poll moved the edge of that range by a tenth of a point and nothing else.

The district result has little bearing on the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, which takes 218 seats, with an average of 245.5 Democratic seats across our simulations. Our average of 30 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+8.2. That House probability is marginally firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district. It does not yet link demographically similar districts in different parts of the country, because we lack the data to build that term.

With 33 days until the November 3 election, this is the only poll of TX-10 in our data.