A TX-9 poll has Mealer at 45 percent, and our forecast has not moved
A Public Policy Polling survey runs far from our model's range for the district, which still gives Leticia Gutierrez a 100% chance and a D+45.8 average margin.
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · September 30, 2026 at 1:03 PM EDT
A Public Policy Polling survey of 560 registered voters in Texas's 9th District, fielded September 18-19, puts Republican Alex Mealer at 45 percent and Democrat Leticia Gutierrez at 39 percent. The survey was released via x.com.
Our forecast did not change. Our model gives Gutierrez a 100 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in our previous run at 12:32 PM ET today. Our projected average margin stays at D+45.8. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range also stays at D+31.6 to D+60.0.
The new survey's six-point Republican margin falls outside that entire range. It is one poll of registered voters, and our model gave it no weight large enough to move the district's numbers. Neither candidate is an incumbent.
Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, which takes 218 seats. Their average in our simulations is 245.3 seats. That probability is slightly firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district. It does not correlate error across demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Public Policy Polling · Sep 19, 2026 · n=560 · TX-9
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.
Get every dispatch by email
The newsroom publishes automatically. No digest and no confirmation step — the next new dispatch goes straight to your inbox.
Easy out anytime: manage or unsubscribe. See the privacy note.