New NY-23 poll shows Langworthy ahead by 17, and our forecast holds steady

Republican Rep. Nick Langworthy leads Democrat Aaron Gies 52% to 35% in a Public Policy Polling survey of 626 likely voters in New York's 23rd District, fielded September 22-23. That is a 17-point gap, with 13% of respondents not choosing either candidate.

The poll did not change our forecast. Our model gives Langworthy a 99 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in the run completed earlier this morning. Gies's chance stays at 1%. Our projected margin is unchanged at R+20.7.

The survey's 17-point margin is somewhat narrower than our mean projection. It still falls well inside the range our model considers plausible. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+35.0 to R+6.4, compared with R+35.1 to R+6.3 before the poll was added. The new result nudged the edges of that range by a tenth of a point and left the center where it was.

The district sits far from the seats that decide control of the chamber. Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, with an average of 245.7 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. That figure is marginally firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it does not yet link demographically similar districts in different parts of the country, because we lack the data to do so. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.3 across 27 polls from the past 45 days.